GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has upgraded its projection for global merchandise trade expansion in 2026 to 3.9 percent. This new forecast more than doubles the previous 1.9 percent estimate issued in March. The revision was supported by increased trade activity in the first half of the year, adjustments in supply chains, and rising investments in artificial intelligence hardware. During the initial six months of 2026, global merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent. The WTO also anticipates merchandise trade will grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
A significant factor in the stronger trade figures was demand for technology hardware. Goods associated with artificial intelligence made up 47 percent of the total merchandise trade growth in the first half. These include semiconductors, servers, and other devices used for computing infrastructure. Trade in AI-related goods surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. Additionally, global expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to increase by at least 30 percent in 2026, according to WTO estimates.
Meanwhile, energy and shipping sectors experienced notable disruptions over the same period. Crude oil exports from the Middle East declined approximately 24 percent in the first half of 2026. Liquefied natural gas exports from the region fell by 47 percent. However, increased shipments from other producing areas mitigated the overall decline in crude oil to roughly 6 percent globally. LNG exports worldwide decreased about 1 percent. Despite these setbacks, global container throughput expanded by 3.9 percent through July, as trade rerouted across alternative suppliers, ports, and transportation channels.
Demand for technology drives robust goods trade growth
Forecasts for services, however, appear weaker than those for merchandise. The WTO has reduced its 2026 growth forecast for commercial services trade from 4.8 percent to 3.3 percent. Results in transport and international travel were softer amid ongoing disruptions in the Middle East. International tourist arrivals dipped 0.8 percent in the second quarter, but for the first half, arrivals remained 0.4 percent above the same period in 2025. Growth in international travel expenditure also slowed during the second quarter.
Certain service categories, however, continued to expand at a faster pace. Exports of computer services rose 18 percent year-on-year in the first quarter and are estimated to have increased 12 percent in the second. Financial services exports grew 14 percent from the previous year in the second quarter. The World Trade Organization predicts commercial services trade will grow by 6.4 percent in 2027. It further forecasts global GDP will increase by 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by a 2.9 percent rise in 2027.
Asia forecasts leading regional merchandise export growth
Regional outlooks show considerable variation in expected merchandise export performance. Asia is projected to experience a 9.9 percent increase in exports during 2026. North America is forecast to grow by 5.7 percent, with Africa expected to expand by 5.6 percent. South America is anticipated to see a 3.4 percent rise, while Europe faces a marginal decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East has the most pessimistic outlook, with merchandise exports predicted to decrease by 17.2 percent for the year.
Forecasts for imports also differ sharply across regions. Asia is expected to report a 9.5 percent increase, and Africa an 8.9 percent rise. North American merchandise imports are projected to grow by 1.4 percent, whereas European imports are expected to increase by only 0.5 percent. Conversely, merchandise imports in the Middle East are forecasted to decline by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the latest trade statistics demonstrate resilience but also reflect the uneven impact of economic and geopolitical disruptions.