ROME / RankWire.AI / – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, worldwide cereal output is expected to total approximately 2.98 billion tonnes by 2026. This marks a 2% decrease compared to the record harvest of 2025. The latest forecast also indicates a shortfall of 3.4 million tonnes from the previous estimate. Although there is an annual decline, global cereal production would still rank as the second highest ever, with a reduction of roughly 61.1 million tonnes compared to the previous year.
The weaker global outlook is primarily driven by maize, with production anticipated to reach 1.309 billion tonnes. Hot and dry weather conditions have lowered yield expectations in parts of the European Union. Notably, France and Poland experienced some of the most substantial downward revisions. Smaller reductions were also reported for India and Paraguay, while Argentina and Brazil saw higher yields that partially offset the decline. Both South American nations remain on track for maize crops significantly above their recent averages.
Although prospects for wheat have improved compared to previous estimates, global output is still forecasted to be below last year’s level. The Food and Agriculture Organization now projects wheat production at 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from its earlier estimate. Improved yield expectations boosted forecasts for Canada and Morocco. Additionally, estimates for Russia and Ukraine rose, while dry conditions led to lowered expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Overall, global wheat production still lags 3.8% behind 2025 figures.
Maize decline impacts overall grain production worldwide
For the 2026/27 season, global rice production is projected at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record of the previous season. Improved yields in Myanmar and Sri Lanka contributed positively to the latest outlook, but these gains could not fully offset weaker forecasts for China, the Philippines, and the United States. Notably, U.S. rice acreage has fallen to levels unseen in decades, which reduces its expected contribution to the global supply.
World cereal consumption is expected to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, representing a 0.2% increase from last season. While coarse grain and rice consumption are projected to rise, wheat use is expected to decline from the high levels seen last year. The forecast for global rice utilization is 559 million tonnes, driven by growing food demand as the world’s population expands. Coarse grain consumption is also supported by feed demand, including maize in the United States and barley in China.
Stockpiles remain sizable despite downward revisions
At the end of the 2027 season, global cereal stocks are projected at 947.2 million tonnes. This estimate is 10.7 million tonnes lower than previous forecasts but still 1.8 million tonnes above the initial levels. The stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 31.6%, slightly below the 31.9% recorded in the prior season. Reserve increases are anticipated in Russia and Ukraine, while a decline in maize and barley inventories accounts for much of the overall reduction in stocks.
The international trade of cereals for 2026/27 is forecasted at 509.3 million tonnes, reflecting a rise of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Despite this increase, trade volume remains below the record levels of 2025/26. The growth is primarily driven by higher maize exports, with Argentina expected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. Global rice trade in 2026 is projected at 60.5 million tonnes, which is 1.9% below the record set in 2025.