LUXEMBOURG / RankWire.AI / – In the first quarter of 2026, greenhouse gas emissions within the European Union experienced a marginal rise. Eurostat reported seasonally adjusted emissions at 837 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, reflecting a 0.3% increase from the preceding quarter. After revisions, the total for the fourth quarter stood at 835 million tonnes. During this period, the EU’s gross domestic product showed no quarter-to-quarter growth, providing a clear comparison between economic activity and emissions levels.
Looking at year-over-year data, the trend reverses. Greenhouse gas emissions declined by 1.2% compared to the first quarter of 2025, while the EU’s GDP increased by 0.8%. These figures encompass carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and fluorinated gases, all measured using a standardized CO2-equivalent. The quarterly series captures emissions from economic sectors and households across all 27 member states, with seasonal adjustments applied to results.
The most significant quarterly growth among key sectors originated from energy-related activities. Emissions from electricity, gas, steam, and air-conditioning supply surged by 4.8%, whereas water and waste management activities saw an increase of 0.7%. Conversely, household emissions fell by 1.3%. Manufacturing, construction, and transportation and storage each experienced a decline of 0.6%. Manufacturing remained the leading source, contributing 20.8% of total emissions, with households close behind at 20.2%.
Majority of EU countries see quarterly rises
In the first quarter, emissions rose in 20 EU member states and decreased in seven. Estonia recorded the largest increase at 9.7%, followed by Finland at 6.4% and Bulgaria at 4.6%. These increases were driven by higher emissions from construction and energy supply sectors. Slovenia experienced the biggest decline at 5.0%, while Luxembourg’s emissions fell by 3.8% and Romania by 2.7% compared to the previous quarter.
Most nations with rising emissions also saw economic growth. Specifically, 18 out of the 20 countries with higher greenhouse gas levels reported an increase in GDP during the quarter. Among the seven countries that lowered emissions, Spain, Greece, France, and Slovenia maintained or increased their economic output. These national figures illustrate how emissions and GDP developments have moved together across individual economies in the first three months of 2026.
Annual figures reveal continued overall decline below 2015 levels
Longer-term data show that emissions across the bloc have generally decreased since 2015. In 2025, the combined greenhouse gas emissions from the EU economy and households totaled approximately 3.3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. This figure is 17.2% lower than the total recorded in 2015. The annual data encompass emissions from business activities, public sector operations, and households, offering a broader perspective than the quarterly figures, which focus on short-term fluctuations in economic activity and energy consumption.
Consequently, the first-quarter data indicate a slight rise from late 2025 but a decline compared to the same period last year. The European Union experienced higher economic output annually, while greenhouse gas emissions decreased over the same timeframe. Quarterly GDP remained steady compared to the previous three months. The latest dataset further highlights significant sectoral and country-level variations, with energy supply sector driving the largest increase and several nations reporting measurable reductions.