MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia intends to reach an annual vehicle production of approximately 2.8 million units by 2035 as part of its revised automotive sector plan. On Aug. 31, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov detailed this objective during a meeting dedicated to the industry. The target encompasses vehicles for both domestic consumers and export markets, with the aim that locally manufactured vehicles will constitute at least 80% of the new-vehicle market by 2035.
The Russian government approved the updated industry strategy on Aug. 24, extending the national framework through 2035. By the end of 2025, Russia’s vehicle manufacturing capacity was around 3.3 million units annually, with factories producing roughly 800,000 vehicles that year. Capacity utilization during 2024 and 2025 remained at 25% for passenger cars, 41% for light commercial vehicles, 35% for trucks, and 43% for buses.
Under the projected scenario, Russia would produce 2.5 million passenger cars annually by 2035. Production would also include about 170,000 light commercial vehicles, 110,000 trucks, and 30,000 buses. The strategy envisions passenger-car manufacturing across four or five different platforms and light commercial vehicle production on one or two platforms. The total new-vehicle market size is expected to reach roughly 3.2 million units in 2035, with imports potentially accounting for up to 20% of that total.
Vehicle production scope spans multiple segments
A baseline scenario within the document also considers lower market and production volumes. This alternative estimates annual vehicle output at approximately 1.69 million units in 2035. It projects the new-vehicle market to be around 2.2 million units in the same year. For 2030, the target scenario expects a market of about 2.4 million vehicles, while the baseline scenario anticipates roughly 2 million units.
The automotive strategy further establishes goals for powertrain technologies, autonomous driving capabilities, and digital vehicle systems. Internal-combustion engine models are expected to comprise between 67% and 83% of production in 2035, depending on segment. Electric and hybrid passenger cars are targeted to hold at least 25% of the domestic new passenger-car market. Additionally, the plan calls for the production of approximately 150,000 vehicles equipped with Level 4 automation or higher by 2035.
Production capacity exceeds current manufacturing levels
In 2025, passenger-car manufacturing capacity was near 2.8 million units, although actual production was about 700,000 cars. Light commercial vehicle capacity stood at roughly 300,000 units, with actual output close to 80,000. Truck capacity was approximately 130,000 units, while bus capacity was around 30,000. During the same year, Russian factories produced roughly 4,400 electric powertrain vehicles, slightly above the 4,200 units produced in 2024.
The government’s strategic plan emphasizes the broader application of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms. It establishes benchmarks for localization and technological independence for domestically manufactured vehicles. The framework encompasses passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous systems, and vehicle software. Its target scenario aims for an annual production of 2.8 million vehicles with an 80% share of the domestic market, supported by an implementation action plan mandated by the approval order.
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